外文原文-地域因素影响下中国能源需求上限的前景.pdf

1、Prospect of the upper limit of the energy demand in China from regional aspectsToshihide Itoa,*,Youqing Chenb,Shoichi Itoc,Kaoru YamaguchidaFaculty of Informatics,Kansai University,Add:2-1-1 Ryozenji Takatsuki-City 569-1095,JapanbGraduate School of Energy Science,Kyoto University,JapancSchool of Int

2、ernational Studies,Kwansei Gakuin University,JapandSenior economist,The Institute Energy Economics,Japana r t i c l e i n f oArticle history:Received 21 November 2009Received in revised form18 July 2010Accepted 22 July 2010Available online xxxKeywords:ChinaEnergy demandLong-term prospectsRegional an

3、alysisa b s t r a c tThe aim of this article is to indicate the upper limit of the annual energy demand in China,taking intoconsideration regional demand trends and projecting these trends into the distant future.The upperlimit of energy consumption is not strictly the maximum amount of consumption.

4、It means that theactual consumption will possibly exceed this level but not by much.Consumption was calculated using the current energy consumption in the US and Japan as a reference,whose energy demands have already almost reached their upper limits.Scenario analysis was conductedfor both semiquant

5、itative and numerical models.Scenarios were developed taking into account thesituation in rural regions.The prospect of regional population growth was also taken into consideration.The results revealed large differences between the estimates in this study(2810e14,450 Mtoe),whichmeans that if the ene

6、rgy consumption per capita in low-consumption areas increases,the totalconsumption in China will also increase significantly.According to the OECD prospect rates,our esti-mated upper limit will be surpassed in China around 2032e2073.?2009 Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.1.IntroductionChinas recent

7、economic growth has been quite rapid,andChinas economy has recovered quickly after the financial crisis of2008.The growth rate of the gross domestic product(GDP)in Chinahas been approximately 10%over the last decade 1.In addition,the present population of China is over 1.3 billion,and this numberwil

8、l also clearlycontinue to increase for an extended period of time.The United Nations reports that population growth in China isexpected to continue at least until 2030 2.Because such dynamic expansions of the economy and thepopulation are expected to increase energy consumption,Chinasenergy demand h

9、as a strong impact on the global energy balance3,4.At the end of the 1990s,around the time Hong Kong wasreturned to China,energy consumption began to increase rapidly5.However,regardless of future improvements in the standard ofliving or future increases in the level of industrialization,the upperli

10、mit of energy consumption will follow the historical experience ofmany industrially advanced countries such as the US and Japan 6.Although a number of studies have calculated the future energydemand of China,many of these studies analyzed the time-seriesshift in energy demand for the near or relativ

11、ely distant future.These analyses examined the past trends in energy consumption,extracted efficient parameters,and then predicted the futuretransition of annual demand bymathematical modeling 3,7.Somestudies discussed the energy demand in China as a whole,but inrecent years,analyses have been condu

12、cted by separating the hugemarket of China into several factors.This separation shows greatvariety,e.g.,industrial sectors 7,8,regional aspects 9,10,primaryenergy resources 11,12,and final consumption patterns 13.Furthermore,analytical models become more complex when theyinterconnect individual anal

13、yses.The credibility of these analyseshas improved along with the development of model precision andcomputer technologies.These studies indicate that many peopleare interested in the energy consumption of China and its impact tothe world.However,the methodology for establishing the esti-mated value

14、in this study is not completely consistent with that ofmany other studies.The starting viewpoint looks at what kind ofinfluence such a huge country will ultimately have on the world.The upper limit of the energy demand in China is predicted,taking into consideration regional demand trends.The upper

15、limitof energy consumption is not strictly the maximum amount ofconsumption.This level means that actual consumption willpossibly exceed this level but not by much.As a regional consideration,the 31 province-level divisions,including22provinces,5autonomousregions,and4municipalities,*Corresponding au

16、thor.Tel./fax:81 72 690 2409.E-mail address:toshikansai-u.ac.jp(T.Ito).Contents lists available at ScienceDirectEnergyjournal homepage: see front matter?2009 Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.energy.2010.07.028Energy xxx(2010)1e8Please cite this article in press as:Ito T,et al.,Prospect of the upper limit of the energy demand in China from regional aspects,Energy(2010),doi:10.1016/j.energy.2010.07.028were analyzed 1.Some of these administrative districts havea larger area and larger