外文翻译-矿井水流突变时期的灰色预警理论和预测.doc

1、翻译部分英文原文：Grey Forewarning and Prediction for Mine Water Inflowing Catastrophe PeriodsMA Qihua(马其华) CAO Jian-jun(曹建军)(Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention and Control，Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266510，China)Abstract :Based on the theory of grey system，established GM(

2、1，1)grey catastrophe predict modeI for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing(not the volume of water inflowing)After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 monthaverage volume of water inflowing，the grey forewarning for

3、mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in 400 meter level of Wennan CollieryBased on residual analysis。it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual valueAnd the scene actual result also shows the reliability

4、of predictionBoth the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.Keywords grey theory,mine water inflowing catastrophe periods，grey forewarning and prediction，GM(1，1)grey prediction model，residual analysis.In

5、troduction Like gas，fire and other mine disasters，water hazard is one of the major disasters in mine construction and production，which causes great loss in personal injury death and economic loss to the country and its people1 One main reason of mine water disaster happening frequently is lacking pr

6、oper prediction of water dischargeThen preventive measures can not be made in timeIt shows that proper prediction of water discharging is an important link in mine water prevention workSwallet is an open，mplicated system and its stability is greatly affected by geological structure and its construct

7、ionSome influence factors are deftnite，but more factors are probability,fuzzy or compound uncertaintyAll these influence factors possess obvious grey property.So it is an urgent problem in correct prediction of mine inflow and its catastrophe periods from engineering circlesGrey system theory is com

8、posed of model setting,forecasting，decisionmaking and contro1It is a method for the uncertainty of incomplete information system.The grey system theory has been used in the field of soft foundation settlement forecast3-6.coal and gas outburst prediction7-9 and so on.For Swallet,a typical grey system

9、 betwee know (white) and unknown(black)，we can also use grey system theory to predict mine water inflowing catastrophe periodThen emergency preplan and proper preventive measure will be made，which can reduce the damage of mine water bursting.Taking prediction of Wennan coal mine一400 m horizontal wat

10、er disaster periods for example，the process of applying grey theory is described in water disaster prediction by use GM(1，1)grey predict mode As an attempt,it is in the hope of presenting a new theory and method of mine water disaster prevention1 Introduction of grey disaster prediction theoryThe di

11、saster prediction in this paper is based on the grey svstem10.The main theoretical foundations are in the following。The original data array x(0):x(0)=( x(0)(1), x(0)(2) , x(0)(n)A fixed figure is appointed and the datum in x array which is higher than is an abnormal value point.Then another data arr

12、ay is composed of these abnormal value points picked up from aray x(0).We call the new data array as the upper limit catastrophe array or the upper limit abnormal array.And the lower limit abnormal array is obtained in the same wayFor examplex(0)=( x(0)(1), x(0)(2) , x(0)(3), x(0)(4)=(3,0.7,8,5)Take

13、 =1 and define all datum in array x(0) higher than are abnormal value.Then：x(0)(1) , x(0)(3) , x(0)(4) The new data array x (0).which is composed of Equation(1) is expressed as follows:x(0)=( x(0)(1), x(0)(2) , x(0)(3)=3,8,5=( x(0)(1), x(0)(3) , x(0)(4)The Equation(2) shows：3= x(0)(1)= x(0)(1) 118=

14、x(0)(2)= x(0)(3) 235= x(0)(3)= x(0)(4) 34Where ,the symbol“” means“be equivalent to”.The catastrophe prediction is not the value of abnormal datum but the period of abnormal datum appear.The above example shows that the first abnormal value is the first point and the value is 3,as 11. In the same se

15、nse.we can find 23 and 34.Our task is to predict the periods of next abnormal value,such as the fourth，fifth and so onIt means that what we care about is not value of x(0)(i) or x(0)(i) but their appearance periodsThrough the grey catastrophe predict model，we will get a numberThe bigger of the numbe

16、r means the further of the next abnormal moment.In other words,the number shows the point of x(0)(i) appearance.Then we can get the corresponding array P,withIf each doublet data is regard as a point on two dimensional surfaces，a horizontal projection operator P is define.The P is:P=(1,1)= 1 P=(2,3)=2 P=(3,4)=3